the mathematics of elections and voting
The three hidden models are a spectral turnout model, a stochastic log-normal turnout model, and a proportional-representation seat-allocation model. Elections Voting Unveils New Spectral Model Key Takeaways * Spectral analysis explains 68% of early turnout variance. * Machine-learning forecasts cut uncertainty by 42%. * Targeted outreach efficiency rose 19%. In my reporting on
elections and voting systems
What the Math Reveals About a Single Seat One parliamentary seat can change a Liberal majority into a minority, making the government more vulnerable to populist pressure. In Canada’s 338-seat House of Commons, the margin between a stable majority and a fragile one can be razor-thin, especially after by-elections
the mathematics of elections and voting
When Canadians vote from abroad, hidden administrative and mathematical pitfalls can turn a simple ballot into a decisive factor in close races. In the 2025 federal election, 212,451 Canadians cast a ballot from outside the country, a figure that represents roughly 1.2% of all votes yet proved pivotal
the mathematics of elections and voting
Polya’s Urn vs Logistic Regression: Elections Voting Reality Check? In short, Polya’s urn captures the self-reinforcing momentum of voter choices more realistically than logistic regression, especially when preferences evolve rapidly during a campaign. The Mathematics of Elections and Voting in Urban Runs When I first applied a coloured-ball